Historical Home Prices and Mortgage Rates
Median Home Price w/ Year-over-Year Change in Home Price 30-Year Fixed w/ Year-over-Year Change in Home Price We lifted these graphs from The Journal’s coverage of today’s New Home Sales Report. In April, new home sales rose 0.2%, with the median price climbing 6.1% from the prior month. Meanwhile, durable goods orders rose 1.9%. Bond…
Median Home Price w/ Year-over-Year Change in Home Price
30-Year Fixed w/ Year-over-Year Change in Home Price
We lifted these graphs from The Journal’s coverage of today’s New Home Sales Report. In April, new home sales rose 0.2%, with the median price climbing 6.1% from the prior month. Meanwhile, durable goods orders rose 1.9%. Bond investors must have liked what they heard: the 10-year Treasury, a common benchmark for mortgage rates, remained under 4.05%. Amazing, really, when you think that it was up around 4.90% a year ago.
New Residential Sales [Wall Street Journal]
There has never been a national annual decline in home prices since the great depression.
I expect a severe decline in regional areas, but other areas wont deceline
I don’t agree that these graphs demonstrate that its pretty clear what happens when rates rise. The rising rate periods seem to be ’80-’82, ’84-’85, ’89-’90, and ’99-’00. It seems from the graph that housing prices either went up or held steady during each of these periods. If that’s all we have to fear, bring it on.
Didn’t that real estate crash start right after the ’87 stock market crash? The graph shows a dip below 0% at that time.
correction was not a national one.
Wasn’t there something like a 20%-25% correction nationally in about 1990? This graph makes it seem like prices have risen steadily, without any hiccups, for the last 25 years.
The blue line on these graphs are pretty useless. But the graphs themselves show how correlated home prices are to the 30year fixed. I think its pretty clear what happens when rates rise.
Fannie’s Required Net Yield(RNY) is the real determinant of rates. And the relationship between the 10year and the RNY is not as direct as it many make it out to be.